Estimation of suspended sediment yield flowing into Inanda Dam using genetic programming

Abstract

Reservoirs are designed to specific volume called the dead storage to be able to withstand the quantity of particles in the rivers flowing into it during its design period called its economic life. Therefore, accurate calculation of the quantities of sediment being transported is of great significance in environment engineering, hydroelectric equipment longevity, river aesthetics, pollution and channel navigability. In this study different input combination of monthly upstream suspended sediment concentration and upstream flow dataset for Inanda Dam for 15 years was used to develop a model for each month of the year. The predictive abilities of each of the developed model to predict the quantity of suspended sediment flowing into Inanda Dam were also compared with those of the corresponding developed Sediment Rating Curves using two evaluation criteria - Determination of Coefficient (R2) and Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE). The results from this study show that a genetic programming approach can be used to accurately predict the relationship between the streamflow and the suspended sediment load flowing into Inanda Dam. The twelve developed monthly genetic programming (GP) models produced a significantly low difference when the observed suspended sediment load was compared with the predicted suspended sediment load. The average R2 values and RMS error for the twelve developed models were 0.9996 and 0.3566 respectively during the validation phase. The Genetic Programming models were also able to replicate extreme hydrological events like predicting low and high suspended sediment load flowing into the dam. Moreover, the study also produced accurate sediment rating curve models with low RMSE values of between 0.3971 and 11.8852 and high R2 values of between 0.9833 and 0.9962. This shows that sediment rating curves can be used to predict historical missing data of the quantity of suspended sediment flowing into Inanda Dam using existing streamflow datasets. The results from this study further show that the predictions from the Genetic Programming models are better than the predictions from the Sediment Raring Curve models, especially in predicting large quantities of suspended sediment load during high streamflow such as during flood events. This proves that Genetic Programming technique is a better predictive tool than Sediment Raring Curve technique. In conclusion, the results from this study are very promising and support the use of Genetic Programming in predicting the nonlinear and complex relationship between suspended sediment load and streamflow at the inlet of Inanda Dam in KwaZulu-Natal. This will help planners and managers of the dam to understand the system better in terms of its problems and to find alternative ways to address them.