Data mining to analyse recurrent crime in South Africa

Abstract

When South Africa is compared to other countries, it has a notably high rate of crime. The country has seen a concomitantly high occurrence of murder, residential burglary, drug-related crime and carjacking (hijacking) crime. The government is desperately seeking solutions that can be implemented to reduce recurrent crime. Several reasons to explicate high crime trends in different areas include alcohol or drug abuse, low standards of education, poor parenting skills and a lack of social and vocational skills. This study aimed to gain better insight into crime trends in South Africa using data mining techniques. Decision-making linked to the data could help the government implement a coherent crime strategy to mitigate crime. The crime dataset chosen for this study was publicly available at kaggle.com. The dataset was prepared using Python programming code. The research design was utilised as an overall strategy to compile all different components of this study with an intention of answering the research questions and attaining the research objectives. To identify the significant changes, ChangePoint Analysis (CPA) was performed to pinpoint the abrupt change in the South African crime dataset. Two methods called Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Bootstrap were implemented in this study of CPA. To analyse the trend of data, CUSUM and Bootstrap were performed to measure the occurrence of change points based on the confidence levels. The CPA outcome depicted multiple significant changes and abrupt shifts in several provinces of South Africa. Linear regression (LR) was utilised to predict the future trends of crime in South Africa from 2016 – 2022 based on the erstwhile 2005 – 2015 crime statistics. The results showed that crime has been on the increase in South Africa with certain provinces such as Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal being identified as crime hotspots. Future studies on crime should focus only on one province to gain insight into the dominating crimes and hotspots within that particular province, with a view to developing highly specific crime-reduction interventions.