Environmental vulnerability and the economic implications of climate change for tourism development in the Central Drakensberg Region [CDR] of KwaZulu-Natal

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In spite of the substantial amount of research that has been conducted in the last decade, misconceptions about the impacts particularly at a local level still abound. This study aimed to determine the extent to which climate change affected the environmental and economic facets of the Central Drakensberg Region [CDR] and the potential impacts these changes have had on the tourism industry. The tourism industry and the activities associated with it are highly weather-dependent and by extension, climate-dependent. Hence in recent times, there has been a growing concern over the impacts of climate change on the development of tourism. In South Africa, climate change is becoming more evident, causing flooding and extreme temperature and weather patterns. Likewise, Africa is widely considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change mainly because of its strong economic dependency on climate-related activities, destitute climate literacy and low adaptive capacity. The CDR, which is an increasingly popular tourist destination, is particularly vulnerable to the long-term impacts of climate change. METHODOLOGY: The spatial setting of this research was the CDR, located in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). The study fused two sampling techniques under the auspices of the non-probability sample method, namely: purposive and convenience sampling. The study's target population was N=450, thus a sample size of n=350 was determined appropriate. The respondents were categorized into two groups: namely experts [local municipality and tourism authorities] and stakeholders [tourists and/or visitors]. A quantitative research approach was employed with an exploratory paradigm design. The data collected was analysed using the latest Statistical Package for the Social Science (Version 25.0) at the time. RESULTS: The primary findings revealed that the tourism industry in the CDR is at tremendous risk, particularly sensitive, significantly exposed, with minimal mitigation and adaptation mechanisms. Likewise, climate change in the area has a substantial impact on investment opportunities, long-term sustainability of protected species, habitats, and the tourism industry. In the absence of adaptation and mitigation, climate change is already having a detrimental economic impact on the region’s growth and development prospects. CONCLUSION: An integrated model was developed based on the aforementioned findings and is expected to be beneficial to tourism organizations and/or authorities in dealing with the devastating effects of climate change. Therefore, it is imperative that necessary provisions for impact adaptations and mitigations are implemented promptly, and that endeavors to develop a robust and multi-purpose adaptation strategy are prioritised. RECOMMENDATIONS: Future research is recommended on the implementation of a Climate Services (CS) Framework, which is a technique that can be applied to strengthen decision-making processes to better prepare and acclimatize to the risks and impacts of changing climatic conditions. Likewise, the study recommends swift remedial actions and/or corrective measures in the form of climate change adaptation and mitigation models, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), and climate change education and awareness.