Development of integrated model and framework for sustainable energy resources and systems planning

Abstract

Sustainable energy development (SED) is a crucial component of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), aiming to maintain economic and social progress while protecting the environment and mitigating climate change's effects. SED serves as a transition paradigm for sustainable development, providing a blueprint for energy peace and prosperity for people and all uses. The first objective of this dissertation is to identify 10 interlinked themes of SED and explore 2 of them, which are the least studied in existing SED reviews. These two themes include energy financing and commitment to climate change and the need for 100% renewable energy (RE), a part of the decarbonization strategy towards the 1.5 - 2.0 °C Scenario. The study suggests that the current G20 countries' contributions, if done continuously per annum, in addition to 80% more funding from private investment of the same amount in the 1.5°C scenario financial requirement for clean energy, is sufficient to limit global warming. In addition to the present drive for 100% RE for all purposes, an emphasis is placed on addressing other issues, such as energy storage options, developing countries' development agenda, and regional security stability to prevent energy wars. Emerging SED decarbonization strategies are presented across power, transport, building, and industrial sectors. This part concludes with a summary of SED progress and directions for future research, mainly the need for re-defining Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) through a centralized global or regional stock-taking strategy for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Consequently, the next study attempts to address the limitations of the current NDC by formulating a policy hypothesis and applying it to an integrated assessment tool (here, termed the environmental model) for strategic stock-taking in reducing GHG emissions. In developing this indexing model, being the first objective of this thesis, we analysed the potential impact of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement on global temperature rise used as the key model input parameters with countries' historical data and other parameters such as GDP, population growth. With the use of an integrated assessment tool based on the concept of system dynamics, the analysis constructs a framework to project global temperature changes under five policy scenarios, namely baseline, current (announced energy policies 1 and 2), and optimum (2.0 0 C Scenario), and most optimum (1.5 0 C) case scenarios. The hypothesis is formulated based on the analysis of current, announced, and best-case global and or applicable national policy scenarios. The model aims to address critical questions regarding the effectiveness of the on-going NDCs commitments in limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 0 C, in alignment with the Paris Agreement's goals. The simulation results offer a roadmap for optimizing the current NDCs in global and national energy policies and treaties, fostering international collaboration, and reinforcing the global commitment to combating climate change. Leveraging on the preceding simulation result of the environmental model, a novel emissions budgeting (EB) model tool (here, termed the economic model) was introduced as a simplified approach for the determination of the economic attractiveness of the policy scenarios of the environmental model. Hence, the second objective, which was to determine the economic benefit of policy scenarios, was achieved. Some advanced countries’ rapid population, economic growth, and energy consumption from mostly 100% electricity that is majorly fossil-based contributes significantly to global CO 2 emissions. In contrast, the case in most developing countries is different. For instance, electricity access in Africa is less than 60%. Hence, this presents challenges and opportunities for achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13 of generating all energy from cleaner or low-carbon sources to reduce CO 2 emissions in all countries and combating climate change consequences. Therefore, considering the peculiar situation of other developmental goals, such as increasing population access to electricity while being obliged with the need to transit to complete renewable energy, as our third objective, we explored the idea and transition paradigm of reaching a 100% renewable energy that is void of unjust energy transitioning, climate injustice, and unbiased drive for increasing renewables energy penetration in the global energy mix. The increasing need for renewable energies has been widely acknowledged to greatly advance the climate change agenda as increasing clean energy usage depletes the accumulation of GHG in the atmosphere. Alongside reducing the accumulation of GHG, increasing RE share in the national mix has constantly become the core of many countries' energy policies and the agenda of many of the NDCs reported by countries. Presently, about 30 countries already with over 70% of their national electricity mix from RE. A part of this has birthed a new paradigm and an emerging field of 100% RE for all purposes, recently receiving much attention from academia and in public discourse. Upon establishing the need for analysing the transition towards 100% RE, the thesis demonstrated this conceptual idea through a model (here, termed the energy model) to analyse the possibilities for a 100% renewable energy system at the global level. Because several studies have already done such analysis, however, this has hardly been directly linked to the climate scenarios. Therefore, this thesis bridged this gap in the literature by synthesising the energy transition at different percentage shares in the global primary energy mix over time with the effect on global temperature levels. The rationale behind this was to present a discussion on the pathway possibilities and challenges of achieving 100% RE and whether it is possible to meet the total global energy demand through RE, with what effect on the climate scenarios. To do this analysis, we further define our hypothesis using baseline, optimum, more optimum, and extreme optimum path scenarios to ascertain such possibilities. Finally, we used an integrated assessment model based on the principles of system dynamics to analyse these hypotheses and to find the implications of each action or scenario on other factors such as global temperature, GHG emissions, energy storage breakthrough while keeping the population growth at maximum possible value of 12.4 billion persons by 2100 with GDP growth rate not less than 1.5%. The findings are valuable in helping us discuss if 100% RE can be a reality and what the implications are. Our results show that in the baseline current scenarios, the global average temperature will most likely be kept at 3.3 0 C. Hence, the world would need very urgent and unprecedented efforts beyond the current baseline of business as usual. Interestingly, our findings also indicate that to stay within the 1.5 and 2.0 0 C Scenarios, the world may need just between (58.6 - 77.3) % and (62.7 - 82.8) %, respectively, in the global energy mix. For the most optimistic scenario, (75.5 - 99.8) % RE may be required, and this is able to keep the temperature rise even well below 1.5 0 C but at 1.1 0 C. The 1.1 0 C possibility is quite highly ambitious, in my opinion, because it requires the intensity of global mix energy generation of about 6627 extra joules from renewables only. The major challenge with the idea of 100% RE for all purposes is that achieving such a feat requires a more diverse approach and scarcely are there 100% RE studies that incorporate holistically the interrelation of several pertinent strategies. Therefore, there exists a need to meet both the technical and non-technical requirements. In order to address this shortcoming, our third objective introduces six methodological or evaluation mechanisms (herein, identified as 100% RE evaluation metrics) suitable for existing and future 100% renewable energy analysis. It then reviews energy modelling tools to identify their applicability to 100% RE analysis. The perspectives presented in this thesis are valuable in developing a common integrated methodology and modelling tool for analysing full renewable energy adoption in countries or regions with best trade-offs, using performance indices that have not been previously used. The proposed metrics could also help with proper national and regional energy resources and system planning for new energy projects and installations, contributing to sustainable development. The framework and narrative, presented in the form of a model within this dissertation, make a noteworthy contribution to the ongoing discourse surrounding the energy transition as, to the best of my knowledge, this concept has not been presented this way. The results from this dissertation can be further investigated through a streamlined application of the approach at individual country or regional level to facilitate inclusive and climate-responsive planning and execution strategies for sustainable energy and electricity generation, distribution, and utilization at both national and urban levels. The implications of the findings have the potential to inform the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) and Conference of Parties (COP) policies in better ways of promoting equitable support for countries, regions, energy consumers, utilities, and prosumers.